前回に引き続くが、ミアシャイマーは2014年にNATOの東方拡大は災厄への処方箋［a prescription for disaster］、あるいはウクライナの破壊に導く［lead to the destruction of Ukraine］と言っている。
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◼️Conference Call with John Mearsheimer on the Ukraine Crisis PDF |
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As the NATO summit began in Wales, John Mearsheimer, R. Wendell Harrison distinguished service professor of political science at the University of Chicago, joined Gideon Rose, editor of Foreign Affairs, to discuss the unintended effects of NATO expansion. Mearsheimer argues in the September/October 2014 issue of Foreign Affairs that the West is to blame for the Ukraine crisis. |
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MEARSHEIMER: Well, there's no question that the Ukrainians are interested in becoming part of NATO and being protected by the United States and the West more generally. And who can blame them? But the fact of the matter is that this is a prescription for disaster and that what the West should have told the Ukrainians is that incorporating Poland or the Baltic states into NATO was possible, but trying to incorporate Ukraine and Georgia into NATO would be a bridge too far. And what would happen is we would end up precipitating the crisis, and that crisis would lead to the destruction of Ukraine. And that is obviously not in Ukraine's interest. This is what we should have told the Ukrainians. We should have just stopped with NATO expansion and given up on the idea of incorporating Ukraine into the West and instead said that what we're interested in doing is maintaining a neutral Ukraine that effectively serves as a buffer state between NATO on one side and Russia on the other. |
ミアシャイマーはこの論で、ジョージ・ケナンの名を三度口にしている、次のように言ったケナンである。
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NATOの東方拡大は、冷戦後の全時代を通じて、アメリカの政策における最も致命的誤謬となるだろう。そのような決定は、おそらくロシアをナショナリズム的・反西洋的・軍事主義的傾向へと駆り立てうる［expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era. Such a decision may be expected to inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion;］（ジョージ・ケナン「致命的誤謬」George F. Kennan, “A Fateful Error,” New York Times, 05 Feb 1997） |
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そして2022年3月11日にミアシャイマーはあらためてこう言うのである。
◼️ ウクライナ危機の主要責任は西側にある：ジョン・ジョゼフ・ミアシャイマー The West is principally responsible for the Ukrainian crisis: John J. Mearsheimer 11 March 2022 in The Economist |
ウクライナ戦争は、1962年のキューバ・ミサイル危機以来、最も危険な国際紛争である。事態の悪化を防ぎ、収束に向かわせるためには、その根本的な原因を理解することが不可欠だ。 The war in Ukraine is the most dangerous international conflict since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Understanding its root causes is essential if we are to prevent it from getting worse and, instead, to find a way to bring it to a close. |
プーチンが戦争を始めたこと、そしてその戦争がどのように行われているかに責任があることに疑問の余地はない。しかし、なぜ彼がそうしたのかは別問題である。欧米では、プーチンは旧ソ連のような大ロシアを作ろうとする非合理的で常識はずれの侵略者だという見方が主流である。したがって、ウクライナ危機の全責任は彼一人にある。 There is no question that Vladimir Putin started the war and is responsible for how it is being waged. But why he did so is another matter. The mainstream view in the West is that he is an irrational, out-of-touch aggressor bent on creating a greater Russia in the mould of the former Soviet Union. Thus, he alone bears full responsibility for the Ukraine crisis. |
しかし、この話は間違っている。2014年2月に始まったこの危機の主な責任は、欧米、とりわけアメリカにある。それが今や、ウクライナを破壊する恐れがあるだけでなく、ロシアとNATOの核戦争にエスカレートする可能性を秘めた戦争に発展してしまったのである。 But that story is wrong. The West, and especially America, is principally responsible for the crisis which began in February 2014. It has now turned into a war that not only threatens to destroy Ukraine but also has the potential to escalate into a nuclear war between Russia and NATO. |
ウクライナをめぐるトラブルは、実は2008年4月のNATOのブカレスト首脳会議で、ジョージ・W・ブッシュ政権が同盟に働きかけ、ウクライナとグルジアを「加盟させる」と発表したことが発端だった。 The trouble over Ukraine actually started at Nato's Bucharest summit in April 2008, when George W. Bush's administration pushed the alliance to announce that Ukraine and Georgia "will become members. |