さて前回、長々と引用したナポリターノによるミアシャイマーインタビューだが、敢えて外した箇所がある。ネオコンの勝利である。前回見たようにトランプはもはや機能していない。したがってこれは当然の帰結である。
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◼️ジョン・ミアシャイマー「ウクライナ/ガザ/イラン：平和は可能か？」 Prof. John Mearsheimer: Ukraine/Gaza/Iran: Is Peace Possible? , July 10, 2025. |
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ナポリターノ: 彼の側近のネオコンは勝利したのでしょうか? |
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JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Have the neocons in his inner circle triumphed? |
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ミアシャイマー：基本的にはそうなっていると思う。選挙戦やホワイトハウス就任直前のトランプの主張、そして就任直後のウクライナ問題での主張を振り返ると、そして現在のトランプの立場を見れば、ロシアとの合意を結びウクライナ戦争を終結させようとしていた抑制派が敗北し、ネオコンが基本的に勝利したことは明らかです。 |
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PROF. JOHN MEARSHEIMER: I think they basically have. I think that if you look at the line of argument that he was making in the run up to the campaign or run up to him taking over in the White House and the arguments that he was making about Ukraine shortly after he moved into the White House. And then you look at where he’s at today, it’s quite clear that the restrainers, the people who were interested in cutting a deal with Russia and putting an end to the Ukraine war, have lost and the neoconservatives have basically won. |
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ナポリターノ：ネオコンはウクライナにおいて、ロシア軍の完全撤退以外に何か妥協するつもりなのでしょうか？これは馬鹿げています。しかし、ロシア軍の完全撤退以外に何か妥協するつもりなのでしょうか？それとも、ウクライナ兵が最後の一人になるまで、この問題は延々と続くのでしょうか？ |
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JUDGE NAPOLITANO: Will the neocons settle for anything less in Ukraine other than a complete this is absurd. But will they settle for anything less other than a complete Russian withdrawal, or is this thing just going to go on and on and on until the last Ukrainian soldier is dead? |
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ミアシャイマー：そうですね、ここでは凍結された紛争が発生すると思います。ロシアがウクライナ西部を征服しようとするとは思えない。ウクライナという機能不全の残余国家が残り、ロシアは最終的にウクライナ領土の大部分を切り離してロシアの一部とすることになる。そうなるでしょう。 しかし、この凍結された紛争が発生すると、一方のロシア、もう一方のヨーロッパ諸国、アメリカ、そしてウクライナとの間に険悪な関係が生まれるでしょう。ですから、ウクライナ危機をめぐる将来のトラブルの可能性は非常に高い。私たちはこれを完全に解決することはできない。ロシアと良好な関係を築き、その後ずっと幸せに暮らすことはできない。ウクライナのこの混乱は、戦場で決着がつき紛争が凍結された後も、いつまでも続くでしょう。 |
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PROF. JOHN MEARSHEIMER: Well, I think you’re going to get a frozen conflict here. I don’t think the Russians are going to try to conquer western Ukraine. I think you’re going to be left with a dysfunctional rump state in the form of Ukraine, and the Russians are going to end up cleaving off a big chunk of Ukrainian territory and making it part of Russia. I think that’s what’s going to happen. But once you have this frozen conflict, you’re going to have poisonous relations between the Russians on one side, the Europeans, the Americans and the Ukrainians on the other side. So the potential for trouble in the future vis a vis the Ukraine crisis is going to be very great. We’re not going to solve this once and for all. We’re not going to end up having good relations with Russia and living happily ever after. This mess in Ukraine is going to go on and on, even once it’s settled on the battlefield and you get a frozen conflict. |
昨年の9月にミアシャイマーは既に予測している、トランプはディープステートに負けるだろうと。
◾️ジョン・ミアシャイマー&ジェフリー・サックス「オール・イン・サミット」 “All-In Summit, John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs, 2024年9月16日YouTube公開 |
ミアシャイマー：私は共和党と民主党をトゥィードルディーとトゥィードルダムと呼ぶのが好きです。両政党はほとんど違いはない。実際、唯一の例外は、トランプ前大統領が2017年に大統領に就任した際、ディープステートを打ち負かし、外交政策の面で異なるタイプのリーダーになろうとしたことだと思う。しかし、彼は基本的に失敗した。もし今回当選したら、今度は違う、ディープステートを打ち負かす、と誓っている。彼は、共和党と民主党がこれまで追求してきたものとは根本的に異なった外交政策を追求するだろう。ここでの大きな問いは、トランプがディープステートと、これら2つの既存政党を打ち負かすことができるかどうかです。私はトランプが失敗する方に賭ける。 |
I like to refer to the Republicans and the Democrats as Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum. There’s hardly any difference. I actually think the one exception is that former President Trump, when he became president in 2017, was bent on beating back the Deep State and becoming a different kind of leader on the foreign policy front. But he basically failed, and he’s vowed that if he gets elected this time, it will be different. He will beat back the Deep State. He will pursue a foreign policy that’s fundamentally different from what Republicans and Democrats have pursued up to now. The big question on the table is whether or not you think Trump can beat the Deep State and these two established parties. I’d bet against Trump. |
ネオコンの勝利、ディープステートの勝利の帰結とはなによりもまず軍産複合体の勝利だ。別名、戦争機械の勝利である、➤「飢えたアメリカ狼は止まらない」
いくつか再掲しておこう。
◾️マイケル・ハドソン「独立した世界の創造」 Creating an Independent World By Michael Hudson, August 15, 2023 |
米軍は、引退後にレイセオンやボーイングなどの大手兵器メーカーの取締役になれるところまで出世することを目的とした将軍たちによって支配されている。 戦争の目的は、単に外国の人々を打ち負かすのではなく、十分な武器を使用して年間1兆ドルの軍事費を生み出し、その大部分が武器製造産業の金融投資家とその取締役会の利益となることだ。 |
the American Army controlled by generals whose objective is to rise through the ranks to a point where upon retirement they get to join the board of directors of Raytheon or Boeing or other major arm makers. The purpose of war isn’t simply to defeat a foreign population but to use enough arms to generate a trillion dollars per year in military spending of which a large portion is profits to the financial investors in the arms making industries and their Boards of directors. |
トーマス・ファジ Thomas Massie@RepThomasMassie Mar 10, 2025 · 軍産複合体は戦争に年間約 500 億ドルを要求している。アフガニスタンへの年間 500 億ドルの支出をやめるとすぐに、ウクライナへの年間 500 億ドルの支出が始まった。ウクライナへの送金をやめたら、次の年間 500 億ドルがどこに行くか注視しよう。軍産複合体は常に飢えている。 |
The military industrial complex demands about $50 billion per year in war. As soon as we quit spending $50b per year in Afghanistan, we started spending $50b per year in Ukraine. Watch where the next $50b per year goes when we stop sending it to Ukraine. The MIC is always hungry. |
◼️ジェフリー・サックス、イラクからウクライナまで、超党派の戦争支援が米国の債務危機を助長している 2023年5月24日 |
Jeffrey Sachs: Bipartisan Support of War, from Iraq to Ukraine, Is Helping Fuel U.S. Debt Crisis MAY 24, 2023 |
ウクライナに関して言えば、NATOをウクライナまで拡大しようという軍産複合体による圧力が続けば戦争になると、私たちは知っていたし、外交官たちも警告していた。しかし、そのことをアメリカ国民に伝えることはなかった。説明もしなかった。そして今日に至るまで、彼らはこの戦争が本当は何なのかを説明していない。 リビアについて考えてみよう。またしても嘘だ。説明もない。国連安全保障理事会違反だ。シリアについて考えてみよう。シリアの取り組み全体が米国の嘘であっただけでなく、オバマ大統領がCIAに命じてシリア政府を転覆させた作戦であったことすら、アメリカ国民には説明されていない。それは失敗したが、非常に高価で破壊的だった。 つまり、これらは選択の戦争であり、嘘の戦争なのだ。軍産複合体が後押ししている。両党のネオコンたちによって推進されている。ウクライナだけでなく、今度は中国との戦争だ。想像を絶する。世界が終わるかもしれない。しかし、これがワシントンで大人の議論とされるものにおける普通の言説であり、私の考えでは、まったく大人ではない。 |
When it comes to Ukraine, we knew — our diplomats knew and warned that the continued pressure by the military-industrial complex to expand NATO to Ukraine would provoke war. But they never told the American people that. They never explained it. And 'til this day they haven't explained what this war is really about. You think about Libya. Again, lies. No explanation. Violation of the U.N. Security Council. You think about Syria. Not only was the whole Syrian effort a lie of the United States, it’s never even been explained to the American people that this was an operation that President Obama ordered the CIA to overthrow the Syrian government. It failed, but it was extremely costly and destructive. So, these have been wars of choice and wars of lies. They are pushed by the military-industrial complex. They are pushed by neoconservatives in both parties. Now we have new drumbeats of war, not only — as if Ukraine was not devastating and threatening enough with nuclear annihilation, now we’re talking war with China. Unimaginable. It could end the world. And yet this is normal discourse in what passes for grown-up discussion in Washington, which is not grown-up at all, in my opinion. |
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US demands to know what allies would do in event of war over Taiwan, FT 2025/07/12 |
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The Pentagon is pressing Japan and Australia to make clear what role they would play if the US and China went to war over Taiwan, in an effort that has frustrated the two most important American allies in the Indo-Pacific. Elbridge Colby, under-secretary of defence for policy, has been pushing the issue in meetings with Japanese and Australian defence officials in recent months, said five people familiar with the discussions. The push is his latest effort to convince US allies in the Indo-Pacific to enhance deterrence and prepare for a potential war over Taiwan. A US defence official declined to comment about the request related to Taiwan, but stressed the “animating theme” of Colby’s discussions with allies was “to intensify and accelerate efforts to strengthen deterrence in a balanced, equitable way”. |
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Those talks include efforts to persuade allies to raise defence spending amid rising concern about China’s threat to Taiwan. But the request for commitments related to a war over the island is a new demand from the US. “Concrete operational planning and exercises that have direct application to a Taiwan contingency are moving forward with Japan and Australia,” said one person. “But this request caught Tokyo and Canberra by surprise because the US itself does not give a blank cheque guarantee to Taiwan.” The US has long had a policy of “strategic ambiguity” under which it does not say if it would defend the island. Former president Joe Biden on four occasions deviated from that, saying the US would intervene. But Donald Trump has echoed other presidents in refusing to say what he would do. Zack Cooper, an Asia expert at the American Enterprise Institute, said: “It is very difficult to get allies to provide specifics about what they would do in a Taiwan conflict when they don’t know either the scenario’s context or America’s own response.” |
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“President Trump has not committed to defend Taiwan, so it is unrealistic for the US to insist on clear commitments from others.” The push has been aimed at Japanese and Australian defence officials, and not higher levels. A second person said there was a “collective raising of eyebrows” from representatives in Japan, Australia and other US allies. Japan’s defence ministry said it was “difficult to answer the hypothetical question of a ‘Taiwan emergency’.” It said any response would “be implemented on an individual and specific basis in accordance with the constitution, international law, and domestic laws and regulations”. The Australian embassy in the US did not comment. Colby’s push follows other actions that have sparked anxiety. |
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The Financial Times last month reported he was reviewing the Aukus security deal that will enable Canberra to procure nuclear-powered submarines. Colby has also urged European militaries to reduce their focus on the Indo-Pacific and focus more on the Euro-Atlantic region. The FT also reported recently that Japan cancelled a high-profile ministerial meeting with the US after Colby abruptly increased the US request for more defence spending. |
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The Pentagon was forced to defend Colby in recent days after reports he was responsible for the decision to block weapons for Ukraine, which was shortly afterwards overturned by the president. But the debate about Taiwan planning comes as Tokyo and Canberra feel pressure from Trump to boost spending, which allies of Colby say is very important given the rising threat from China in the Indo-Pacific region. “We are coming to our allies in the Indo-Pacific, very similar to what the president did in Europe, and saying this is the threat environment,” said the US official. “Obviously, some of these are tough conversations, including on defence spending. But we think it will leave us all in a better place.” |
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The official said the administration was confident that Japan and Australia would boost defence spending more quickly than European allies had. “We don’t think it should — nor can it — take 20 years. Not just because it is in our interests, but because it is so much in the Indo-Pacific allies’ interests as well.” The situation is particularly sensitive for Japan because the push for more spending — including one from Colby that was publicly rebuked by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba — comes ahead of upper house elections on July 20. |
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Recommended News in-depthAukus US sends a shot across the bows of its allies over submarine deal The official said the US understood that it had to sensitive to the political considerations of allies. “That is something we all have to work through,” the official said. “It’s tough, but things simply must become fairer and more equitable for this to work — which it must. That is why we have leadership.” The official said the Pentagon had received “positive” indicators on higher spending from Japan and Australia, but stressed that it was “critical for us all that we see results”. Some allies believe Colby is ignoring their concerns in his pursuit for stronger deterrence. The official said that was “demonstrably untrue”. “We are investing tremendous amounts of time and energy to work with allies to find ways to address our shared challenges in ways that leave us both better off,” he said. |
不幸にもーーこの期に及んでもーー日本にはアメポチ奴隷根性の人間が多いらしい。
➤今、BRICSがやっているのは「米国に舐められてたまるか」だ
