蚊居肢散人は自らの甘さに忸怩たる思いだよ。
最悪シナリオだったら 15万人らしいよ、感染者じゃなくて死者が。この神戸大学の先生の話だと。
今朝書き忘れたが，逆に言うと，クラスター対策班は最後の希望に近いのだ（まだクロロキンが効くとか他の新薬が見つかるとかワクチン開発に成功するという可能性もあるが）。これに失敗するとLipsitch教授の予測の通り世界人口の40-70％が感染し，日本でも例えば40％が感染してIFR推定値の下限の0.3％が亡くなる，つまり，15万人が亡くなるという最悪シナリオが現実味を帯びてくる。残念ながら日本はシンガポールほど徹底した管理はできなかったし，感染症のサーベイランス体制も公開体制も不十分なので（シンガポールのデング熱患者のデータを見て，ブロックごとの発生日別の患者数が公開されているのに驚いたことがある），積極的疫学調査でリンクを辿ることによる封じ込めには失敗した。（2019-nCoVについてのメモとリンクーーなぜクラスター対策が重要かーー2020年2月26日 -神戸大学大学院保健学研究科・教授中澤港）
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ここで引用されているハーバード大学にマーク・リプシッチMarc Lipsitchって人はどんな人だろうと見てみたら、ツイッターもやっているようで、いろんな記事があるんだが、次のものが最も簡潔にまとまっているね。
Harvard scientist predicts coronavirus will infect up to 70 percent of humanity
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Harvard University epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch is predicting the coronavirus “will ultimately not be containable” and, within a year, will infect somewhere between 40 and 70 percent of humanity, The Atlantic reports. But don’t be too alarmed. Many of those people, Lipsitch clarifies, won’t have severe illnesses or even show symptoms at all, which is already the case for many people who have tested positive for the virus.
That’s precisely why he doesn’t think the virus can be stopped. Viruses like SARS, MERS, and the avian flu were eventually contained in part because they were more intense and had a higher fatality rate. In other words, if you were infected by the virus that caused SARS, chances were you weren’t out and about. But because the current coronavirus, known as COVID-19, can be asymptomatic, or at least very mild, there are a better chance people will likely go about their day as normal. The downside, though, is that it becomes harder to trace and prevent. In that sense, it’s similar to the flu, which can also be deadly, but often passes without the infected person seeking medical care.
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The Atlantic reports Lipsitch is definitely not alone in his prediction. There’s an emerging consensus that the outbreak will eventually morph into a new seasonal disease, which, per The Atlantic, could one day turn “cold and flu season” into “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”
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もう少し見てみたら、WHOのIra Longiniと香港大学のGabriel Leungが同様なことを言ってるらしい。
Harvard scientist: coronavirus pandemic likely will infect 40-70% of world this year Feb 15, 2020
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Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told The Wall Street Journal that "it's likely we'll see a global pandemic" of coronavirus, with 40 to 70 percent of the world's population likely to be infected this year.
"What proportion of those will be symptomatic, I can't give a good number," added Lipsitch, who is the Director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
Two other experts have recently given similar estimates.
Ira Longini, a biostatistician and adviser to the World Health Organization (WHO), has predicted that two-thirds of the global population may eventually contract COVID-19.
Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, says if the transmission estimate of 2.5 additional people for each infected rate is accurate, that would result in an "attack rate" that would affect 60 to 80 percent of the world's population.
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